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Cake day: March 24th, 2026

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  • Was it propped up by international goodwill/trust/fear which we have now burned?

    Partially. US markets were loved globally due to perceived openness, depth, low geopolitical risk and liquidity for amounts that are difficult to move otherwise.

    US tomfuckery has altered the risk profile so quickly and so badly, money is not able to measure risk meaningfully. To be clear, it’s not a moral stance. Money is psychopathic. A lot of the US psychopathy suits money just fine. But there is a bit of a panic on geopolitical risks and global banks, insurance and pension funds are shifting stances as we speak. This hasn’t been as damaging as it should have been, because it was dwarfed by older phenomena.

    The other things fundamentally driving markets up is twofold. 1-The efficient retail investor who holds ETFs that just lets markets float on inflation like a rubber duck in a tub. As your dollar inflates, more dollars pour in as long as populations grow. You can piece together the difficult phase we’re entering here. The idea of a market return at all is getting deeply suspect with low birthrates and aging societies.

    2 - Petro State investments. Rich middle eastern oil producers know that their cash cow will die one day, and fossil fuels will be abandoned almost completely, except for chemical feedstocks. These countries have no other resources. They are building sovereign wealth funds, private and public where the money has to go into whatever the market has to offer. Price, value, ROI are all secondary to parking that cash somewhere where it can endure. The geopolitical risks of a fascist US empire are secondary to getting those countries’ lifeblood, oil money, parked somewhere usefull. They are not exactly panicking, but they are desperate.

    My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel.

    • proverb